Term
Expected value
The average result you'd expect over a large number of similar situations. It doesn't predict the outcome of any single deal.
Beat the Dealer: A Winning Strategy for the Game of Twenty-One, Edward O. Thorp
Explained in
- Beat the Dealer: A Winning Strategy for the Game of Twenty-One, Edward O. Thorp
- Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street, William Poundstone
The average result you would get if a random situation were repeated many times with the same odds and payouts.
- Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, Annie Duke
The average result of a decision if you repeated it many times: every possible outcome multiplied by its probability.
- The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't, Julia Galef
A concept from probability theory: a way of judging a decision that weighs both the chance of an outcome and the size of the gain or loss.