Term
Outside view
An approach where a forecast starts from how similar cases usually turn out, not from the details of your own case.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Explained in
- Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
- Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World, David Epstein
Kahneman's idea: judging your own case by how similar cases usually turned out, rather than by its details.